MLB: Is the season half-empty or half-full? (Part 3)

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

 

 

The Phillies celebrate a walk-off win. Courtesy of: style.pwblogs.com

 

NL East, preseason prediction:
1.)    Philadelphia Phillies
2.)    Los New York Metros
3.)    Miami Marlins presented by Landshark
4.)    Atlanta Politically Correct Native-American Mascots
5.)     There’s a baseball team in Washington? 

NL East, Current Standings
1.)    Philadelphia Phillies
2.)    Atlanta Tomahawk Chops
3.)    Miami Marlins
4.)    Los New York Metros
5.)    That baseball team that apparently plays in Washington

What I did right:

-Claim that the Phillies would be even better this year, despite coming off a World Series Title.  Thus far, I’ve been right- despite the overall struggles of the pitching staff. So how do they have the second best record in the NL?  Hitting.  They’re averaging 5.3 runs a game, best in the NL, and up one-third of a run per game from this time last year.  They’re fourth in the NL in On-Base percentage, first in slugging and homers, as well as leading the way in OPS.  Any lineup anchored by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and RAULLLLLLLLLLLLLLL can carry a team.  Last year they sat at 53-44, .546.  This year they sit at 52-38, .578.  So yeah, I was right, they’re better this year than last.  But until Hamels and Lidge turn it around, I can’t get too worked up for October.

-Predict the Marlins would have a terrific 1-2 punch.  Okay, give me a mulligan on Ricky Nolasco.  He was plagued by an awful BABIP early on and has turned it around since.  What I’ve come to you to brag about is my prediction that Joshua Johnson would be great this year.  I even told fantasy owners to get him on your team, because you’ll want him.  I even took my advice!  All he’s done?  Post an ERA of 2.74, a WHIP of 1.13, with 109 strikeouts through 128 innings.  In other words, the dude’s a legitimate ace.

What I got Wrong:

Overestimated the Phillies pitching.  All offseason long I heard grumblings that, “The Phillies just got lucky,” and, “Their pitching is gonna be exposed this year.”  My beloved World Champions were getting no respect!  I was pretty confident in this staff, and Chad Durbin and Jamie Moyer were the only ones I found to be due for regression.  I laughed at those fools who thought that Cole Hamels, coming off a 90-inning increase in 2008, would struggle.  I mocked those who thought that an agonizingly inconsistent Brett Myers and a 79-year-old Jamie Moyer would have bad years.  I smirked at the imbeciles who though that Brad Lidge was a headcase who would revert to his post-Pujols years in Houston.  And how did this staff repay me for my confidence?  They currently sit 11^th in runs against, having fallen from 4^th a year ago.  The culprit has been their starting pitching, where they rank 13^th in ERA through the season’s first half.  To put it in perspective, the ERA of Philadelphia starters is .01 better than the Washington Nationals.  Yikes.  They’ve shown signs of turning it around, and J.A. Happ has been a revelation, but without Roy Halladay and/or a rebound from Hamels, I’m not sure how high this team’s October aspirations should be.

Apparently I didn’t see that the baseball gods hate the Mets?  Seriously I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team so decimated by injuries.  To be fair though, some of this does fall on Omar Minaya.  They were relying on a 37 year old first basemen who looked done 14 months ago.  Their best player was an early-30s latino centerfielder- they tend to fall apart faster than a Ford once the warranty expires.  Their all-star shortstop has a history of hamstring problems, and any middle infielder is an injury risk.  Gary Sheffield is forty.  Also, two of the pitchers whom they were relying heavily on, J.J. Putz and John Maine, were both coming off shoulder surgery.  I mean, that’s just asking for trouble.  Regardless, they’ve had more than their share of bad luck, but it would have been optimistic to think a team this fragile would avoid the wrath of the injury bug.

I also assumed that this would easily be the best division in the NL.  I saw a Phillies squad coming off a World Series Championship, a Mets squad that improved their biggest flaw (bullpen), a Braves team that retooled their pitching staff, a Marlins squad that finally got the bulk of their starting rotation healthy, and a Nationals team that looked primed for a title.  I mean, they traded for Scott Olsen!  Alas, it wasn’t to be.  The Phillies have been about what I expected, although with even an average pitching staff they’d be duking it out with L.A. for the top seed.  New York has drowned in their injuries and just hasn’t had the manpower to keep the pace.  Atlanta really has no offense…no, really, their starters seriously have to allow negative runs for the Braves to win.  And the Marlins can’t catch, or close out games.  On top of that, the Dodgers exceeded my lofty expectations, the Giants have become a legitimate playoff force, and the Rockies are in the middle of filming Rocktober II: This Time It Counts.  The East just hasn’t lived up to it’s potential.  It’s the Delmon Young of divisions.  Only the Phillies have scored more runs than they’ve allowed, and it’s clearly the worst division in the NL, if not baseball.  But hey, if it makes it easier for the Phillies to return to October, then I guess I can’t complain.

 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: Is the season half-empty or half-full? (Part 2)

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

 

Albert Pujols leads the Major Leagues in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage. Courtesy of: i.cdn.turner.com/si

 

 

NL Central, Preseason Prediction:
1.)    Chicago Bear Cubs
2.)    Cincinnatuh Reds
3.)    Milwaukee Brewers
4.)    St. Louis Pujols
5.)    Pittsburgh Pirates
6.)    Houston Colt .45s

NL Central, Current Standings:
1.)    Saint Louis Pujols
2.)    Chicago Bear Cubs
3.)    Houston Colt .45s
4.)    Milwaukee  Brewers
5.)    Cincinnatuh Reds
6.)    Pittsburgh Pirates

-What I did right:

I literally got nothing right.  Not one team is currently in their predicted position.  I quit.  This will be my final blog post.  I’ll soon be moving to Vegas where I’ll play roulette for 10 hours a day until I’m broke.  At least there every outcome has an equal chance of occurring.  And at least if I’m right I get paid.  Come to think of it, why am I not there now?

Alright, here’s my pitiful attempt to salvage what’s left of my credibility by making excuses:

I underestimated the wisdom of the sage Dave Duncan.  The Cardinals pitching coach has done me in once again.  EVERY year I see that the Cardinals rotation is held together by Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter’s UCL, and three dudes who simply have arms.  Every year I write them off in March because they don’t have enough pitching.  And every year Dave Duncan makes me look like a fool.  How did Kyle Lohse post an ERA of 3.78 last year?  Dave Duncan.  How does Joel Pineiro have an ERA of 3.20 right now?  Dave Duncan.  He deserves a Cy Young Award more than any pitcher ever did, because he turns scrubs into workhorses every single year.  And makes me look like a fool while he does it.

Underestimated Albert Pooholes.  Long story short, I forgot that he’s a deity.  I didn’t think he’d be able to totally carry an otherwise mediocre lineup solely on his shoulders.  Seriously, take the big Poo off this team and they’re ranked 12^th in the NL in runs scored.  Dude’s insane.

…Forgot…that the Cubs…would…not do…honestly, I don’t know (IDK, if you will) what went wrong here.  Well I do, actually, but I don’t see how I could have seen it coming.  The Cubs have been blindsided by injuries and ineffectiveness by those left healthy.  The lineup that led the NL in runs last year is currently 15^th.  Seriously.  A-ram-ram has been injured since April, Derrek Lee sucked before mid-June, Soto has been soso (I’m really sorry, I try to avoid awful Matthew Berry-esque jokes like that) Alfonso Soriano has played like a 37-year-old Dominican posing as a 33-year-old Dominican, and Milton Bradley is continuously proving last year was a fluke.  And yet…I can’t help shake the feeling this team will turn it around, and soon.  D. Lee is pulverizing the ball, A-ram-ram is finally healthy, and Soriano ALWAYS has a hot streak in the summer (even if he is secretly 37).  Going out on a limb here, I’ll say they win the Central.  It’s a weak division and despite everything, they’re still only 2 games back, and now in second.  They’re due for a hot streak…and they’re already starting to surge.  A bit.  Baby steps.

Underestimated Wandy Rodriguez.  Yes, there’s actually a real person who’s named Wandy.  No, their last name isn’t “[sic].”  Without him, Houston would be in last place in the central.

Things I mildly got right:
-Milwaukee being mediocre. (47-45, allowing more runs than they’ve scored)
-Pittsburgh wouldn’t be the least talented team in the division.  Yes, I know they’re in last.  But they’re better than Houston and Cincinnatuh.  Look up their respective Pythagorean records if you don’t believe me.

 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: Is the season half-empty or half-full? (Part 1)

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

So which kind of person are you?  Are you a pessimistic Blue Jays fan who longs for the sunny days of April and the divisional lead your team then held, or are you not only a realist fan of another club but an optimistic one who is looking forward to the thrilling pennant races and October baseball?  You can count me in the latter.  Although I can commiserate with Jays fans because my team was playing a lot better in April as well.  Regardless, we’re just past the halfway point of the season and I think now is the time for me to review my preseason divisional predictions, and more or less lament my lack of precognition.  Man, to be Ms. Cleo…

Dodgers' Matt Kemp and teammates celebrate one of his home runs. Courtesy of: daylife.com

NL West, Preseason Prediction:
1.)    Los Angeles Dodgers of Anaheim
2.)    San Fran Baseball Giants
3.)    Arizona Diamondbags
4.)    Colorado Rockies
5.)    San Diego Padres

NL West, Current Standings:
1.)    Los Angeles Dodgers of Anaheim
2.)    San Fran Baseball Giants
3.)    Colorado Rockies
4.)    Arizona Diamondbags
5.)    San Diego Padres

What I did right:

- Predicting the Dodgers and Giants would go 1-2.  I’m really proud of this one actually.  Granted, the fact that I butchered the other 3 spots in the division keeps me humble.  The popular belief was that the Dodgers and Diamondbags (if anyone can figure out why I call them that they win a cookie) would duke it out for the division crown, but I really didn’t see much that I liked in Arizona.  An overrated ace in Webb, a bad bullpen, and some overhyped young guys misconstrued as “prospects.”  I actually liked the Giants this year, but I didn’t think they’d be THIS good (49-41).  I loved their starting pitching, but the real reason for the team’s success is that bullpen.  I’m not sure if a team that has scored fewer runs than the Washington Nationals can keep this up, but with that pitching, they could be awfully dangerous in the playoffs.

What I did wrong:

-Underestimated the Rockies.  Seriously, what is it with the Rockies and their propensity to play out of their mind for 3 weeks?  Does any other team go on ridiculous tears this often?  Like, legitimately, I can’t think of another mediocre team that gets this unfathomably hot for long stretches.  If I wrote this 5 weeks ago, I’d be telling you the Rockies were awful, because they were sitting at 20-30, last place in the NL West, and 13.5 games back. All they’ve done since is go 29-12 with an 11 game win streak and moved to third, improving their record to 49-42.  However, I won’t let numbers and records and facts get in the way of my stubbornness- I still don’t think this is a good team.  A .500 team, sure.  But not anything more than a playoff dark horse.  Offensively, Brad Hawpe is simply playing above his head.  Todd Helton is always one bad swing away from the DL.  Ubaldo Jiminez is a young and very talented pitcher, but he’s way too inconsistent to avoid a slump before the season is out.  The Rockies starting pitching has recorded 52 quality starts this year- good for 3^rd in the NL.  You really want to tell me that a Colorado team has the 3^rd best starting pitching in the NL?  I mean, their #2 pitcher is Jason Marquis.  (But he’s an All-Star!)  They’re 12^th in the NL in K/9, and 9^th in K/BB.  In short, this roster is due for a lot of regression, especially their starting pitching.  They’ll finish above .500 because of their hot June, but don’t let them fool you.  There won’t be another Rocktober.  Am I just a bitter Phillies fan, still furious about the 2007 NLDS?  Yes.  Yes I am.

 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: The Nats were wrong in firing Acta

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

The fact that the Nationals even considered firing Manny Acta is just more evidence that they are the worst franchise in baseball. 

Manny Acta was fired on Monday. Courtesy of: nydailynews.com

Look, I get it, when a team struggles, the manager is usually the first to get axed, fair or not.  Some change is needed, and since it clearly can’t ever be the player’s fault because GMs are infallible, it’s the manager who goes.  Oftentimes firing a manager lights a fire under the team and they go on a crazy hot streak.  Look at the Rockies; they fire Clint Hurdle and they win 59 straight despite having Jorge De La Rosa and Jason Hammel in their rotation. (Who?)  Unfortunately, this is an entirely different situation than, say, the 2008 Mets.  The Mets were a very talented team that slumped badly for the first two months.  They were a World Series contender playing 4 games under .500.  They were underachieving.  Even though it probably wasn’t Willie Randolph’s fault (I’d put most of the blame on Aaron Heilman and Carlos Delgado), the team caught fire soon after he got canned. 

But the Nationals aren’t a World Series contender.  They aren’t slumping or underachieving.  They’re bad.  They resemble the 1962 Mets than the 2008 Mets- and honestly, they’re not far off that pace.  What was Manny Acta supposed to do?  He was given a team with 3 designated hitters for his outfielders, a starting staff headlined by John Lannan, and a bullpen that wouldn’t cut it in high school ball.  The staff ERA is 5.19.  Wanna blame Acta for that? 

If a team is 4-5 games under .500, you can argue it’s the manager’s fault.  The Nationals are 37 games under .500.  How is that Acta’s fault?  He’s been given far and away the worst roster in the game.  Maybe the Nationals believe that adding a new manager will put them over the top.  Maybe they think they’ll go 70-3 the rest of the way and storm into the playoffs with a new skipper.  And honestly, it wouldn’t even surprise me if they thought that. 

Any front office that’s dumb enough to put together a team this hysterically bad and then fires their manager as a scapegoat seems capable of anything.  It’s just a shame that Jim Bowden stepped down, because he’s the one that should be taking the heat. 

 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: Three ways to improve the All-Star game

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

1.) Remove the fan vote from the selection process. 

Every year, and I mean EVERY YEAR, they (we) fill a significant portion of both rosters with players who aren’t the best at their position.  Again, it’s just a popularity contest.  Most fans don’t care to see the best players in their league take on the other, they want to see their team take on the other league.  The general thought process is something like this: “Now, who’s the best 2^nd baseman in the NL…who plays for my favorite team?  Kelly Johnson!  Annnnnnd, submit.”  It happened last year with Kosuke Fukodome (yes, he’s still playing), this year with Josh Hamilton, (Oh, sorry, I thought this was the Home Run derby ballot!) and happens every year with Derek Jeter (sorry, Jason Bartlett!)  As a Phillies fan, I’ll openly admit that Shane Victorino didn’t deserve to make the roster.  He’s had a great year, but Pablo Kung-Fu Pandoval (worst nickname ever?) and Matt Kemp are both better.  My problem isn’t so much the injustice of it.  But if we’re going to proudly proclaim “This one counts!” then let’s construct a roster as if it did.  If I’m an AL fan, I want Youkilis starting at first, not Teixeira.  Torii Hunter would be starting in center.  I want Zobrist starting over Hill, and anyone other than Michael Young to replace the injured Evan Longoria.  And seriously, Adam Lind would be on the roster.  Look at his numbers and tell me that if he didn’t play in a different country he still wouldn’t be in the all-star game.  In the NL, McCann would be given the start at backstop instead of the 2^nd-best Molina brother.  Pablo Sandoval would replace the overrated Ryan Howard on the bench (remember, I’m a Phillies fan), and Matt Kemp would start in center.  

Honestly, I could go on, but I’m about to have an ulcer.  The short version is simply that most fans don’t know jack about baseball and shouldn’t be voting for the rosters in the All-Star game.  Let some educated and unbiased sabermatricians decide who’s the most worthy, and give the fans ONE roster spot on which to vote, just to quell their frivolous demands.  Wait, did I just contradict my first change? 

2.) Stop giving the manager the keys to the roster. 

Stop letting them play GM.  Granted, the last 2 NL managers have been incompetent, but if anything that illustrates my point.  Unless you’re Houston, Washington, L.A., Pittsburgh, or Kansas City, why would you give control of your team to a man who’s clearly unqualified, if not also a nitwit?  That’s nearly as bad as giving control to a woman who is qualified!  The manager gets to select one player to add to their roster from any team in their league.  Last year, Clint Hurdle selected Aaron Cook instead of Johan Santana and Cole Hamels.  Why?  Because Cook had won more games for his team, or, in other words, his team scored more runs when he pitched than Cole’s or Johan’s.  (There’s a reason Hurdle lost his job).  This year, Charlie Manuel selected Jason Marquis over teammate Ubaldo Jiminez.  If nothing else, take Ubaldo because of his vastly superior name, if not his vastly superior stats.  Was Big Chuck afraid of getting Swine Flu?  He later selected Jayson Werth to replace the injured Carlos Beltran over the slightly more deserving Pandoval and Kemp (although it was nice to see the humorously underrated Werth get some recognition).  This kind of thing happens every year.  A manager selects some inferior player, often from his team, and justifies it with words like “winner” or “gamer” or “grit” or “UZR.”  Wait, sorry, that last one would be Billy Beane, not any 16^th Century managers.  Again, let’s start putting the best possible team on the field.

3.) Stop giving every player an at-bat. 

Yet again, if we’re going to boldly proclaim, “This one counts (for the 4 players in this game whose teams will advance to the World Series),” then let’s start managing like it.  You’re really going to pull Chase Utley in the 5^th so Orlando Hudson can bat?  You’re going to give Yadier Molina 2 at-bats and Brian McCann only 1?  You’re going to pull Albert Pujols from the game at all?  If this were a regular season game, Charlie Manuel wouldn’t have made any of those moves.  So why did he make them in a game that supposedly counts?  No one’s going to take the All-Star game that seriously until we give the best players the most at-bats.   

I stand by my points though.  We’re constructing the rosters and managing the game as if it doesn’t count for anything, but we’re giving it the hype and coverage as if it does.  Oh, and some little thing called “World Series Home Field Advantage” (whatever that is) lies in the balance.  Hence, I can’t understand why Ryan Zimmerman received more at-bats than Prince Fielder.

 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: AL> NL^13

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

I’m not sure if that’s the correct way to express the AL’s dominance in scientific notation, and I’m using numbers because I’m not sure words can express it either.  14 years!  That’s how long it’s been since the NL won an All-Star game (for the dummies who are about to comment “The AL’s winning streak is only 13, you meatball,” A.) you have to go back one year past the AL’s first win to find the last won the NL won, thus leaving you with 13+1=14, and B) the two leagues tied in 2002.  They’re now on a 7-year win streak, and have won 12 of 13.)  14 years!  I was six the last time the NL came back with their shields rather than on them.  I wasn’t even a fan of Dragon Ball Z yet. 

The last few years, however (namely, every year since 1997), it’s seemed as if the All-Star game has lost some of its luster.  It just doesn’t feel like the clash of the titans that it used to be.  Maybe it’s because the AL is vastly superior and everyone’s anticipating another victory for the junior circuit.  Maybe I’m just becoming like every baseball fan and beginning to lament how much the game has changed since my childhood.  (“Back in my day, players actually gave a hollerin’ hoot about the All-Star game!  The sport was full of blue-collar dirtball types like Pete Rose, who all but killed a man just to score a run!  These players today are nothing like ole Pete, they’re all no-talent prima donnas like that Alex Roidriguez.”  “But dad, A-Rod was way better than Rose.”  “Yeah, but did he ever bleed on the field?”)

So I don’t know what’s gone wrong with the Summer Classic.  Maybe nothing.  Regardless, I feel like some changes need to be made to the All-Star game, whether there’s a problem or not.  As they say, if there’s not a problem, fix it anyway. 

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: The picture is becoming clearer

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

Besides October, this is my favorite time of the baseball season.  Just enough time has passed for us to make sound analysis on a given team or player, so we can finally discard the small sample size disclaimer.  At the same time, more than enough time remains for the playoff picture to change completely.  It’s the perfect time of year for airheads like me- we’ve finally played enough games to get a good idea of how the divisional races will shape up, but enough time remains that it isn’t obvious which teams are October bound.  Well, except the Dodgers.  I mean you think the Giants can catch them?  Back to my point, we can start to reassess every assumption we formed back in March and reevaluate the playoff picture.  On that note (a C flat), here are some of my thoughts thus far on the season to date.

Texas is a legitimate playoff team.  The only thing holding this team back from a playoff spot last year was their total lack of pitching.  They scored the most runs in baseball last year, but allowed the most as well.  They sit at 31-21 right now, and they’re not riding their bats to that mark.   It’s been their pitching.  I’ll admit that their starting rotation has been overachieving, but that’s likely the workings of their savant pitching coach, Mike Maddux, who has a history of taking mediocre pitchers and turning them into successful ones.  The Rangers bullpen has been spectacular as well, with the additions of Darren O’Day and Jason Jennings.  They may very well improve that staff as well.  They are the leading candidate to sign rehabbing ace Ben Sheets late this summer, and they could get a boost from the farm, as many of their talented young pitching prospects stand to get the call at some point this season.  We also need to give their defense some credit, as they’ve gone from being one of the worst defensive teams to one of the best in the past year.   Oh, and back to that hitting…it’ll come around.  Once Josh Hamilton is healthy and Chris Davis remembers how to hit, this team will mash once again.  When you stack a loaded offense on top of a strong pitching staff, you have a bona fide playoff team on your hands. 

Chicago (NL) was probably overrated coming into the season.  Look, before you flame me because they’re battling a slew of injuries, hear me out.  I still think this is a good team, one that will make a serious push in the NL Central before all’s said and done.  But this team wasn’t supposed to “just make a push.”  They were supposed to run away with the division.  The loveable losers were thought to be not only the class of the Central, but of the entire NL.  Unfortunately, this is 2009 now, not 2008, and a tough reality is dawning on the Northsiders: they aren’t as good as they were last year.  In 2008, they received a lot of performances that they won’t get again, mere statistical outliers.  Ryan Dempster is a league-average pitcher, not the ace he seemed to be last year.  Carlos Zambrano- I know I’ll get flak for this- isn’t an ace anymore.  Look at his career stats.  He’s still just above average, but he’s been in clear decline for 3-4 years now.  Derrek Lee is in the same boat; he’s no longer an All-Star Caliber 1^st basemen.  Soriano probably isn’t this bad, but how often do we see a Dominican player completely fall off the cliff in their early 30s?  It’s almost like they have a tendency to lie about their age…Catcher Geovany Soto is destined for a great career, but is mired in a sophomore slump.  Milton Bradley is injury prone, temperamental, and coming off a career year- he was poised to disappoint.  Not to mention they’ve lost guys like Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa, who had great seasons for them last year.  Again, this isn’t a bad team.  They’re underperforming and are still sitting at .500.   They very well may still make the playoffs- in fact, I still think they’ll win the Central.  Just don’t expect this team to rebound and dominate the National League over the summer like they did last year. 

Tampa Bay is a lot better than it appears.  They’re currently sitting at 27-28 (5 games back of Boston), a record that belies their talent level.  They’ve scored the most runs in the AL, despite down years and injuries from DH Pat Burrell and centerfielder B.J. Upton.  The starting pitching has underachieved as well, as Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine have both turned in awful seasons to date.  They’re bullpen has struggled mightily as well, but I can’t imagine the best pen of 2008 won’t rebound at all.  On the bright side, most of these problems should rectify themselves through either regression to the mean or by getting healthy going forward.  Their Pythagorean record (a nifty little formula that predicts W-L through runs for and against; just Google Pythagoras if you’re interested.  Most of the related articles will be about some Greek guy, but eventually you should find one about the formula) is 32-23, which would actually put them out front in the AL East.  They’ve simply lost a ridiculous number of one-run games (in which they’re 5-11), which again should correct itself through future regression.  Unfortunately they just lost both Akinori Iwamura and Jason Bartlett for the season; the latter had been destroying the ball thus far.  Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar are more than adequate replacements, but it’s still a tough loss.  With or without them, this is an elite team, even in the tough AL East.  Look for them to surge forward this summer.  I still stand by them as my pick to win the division.

The Dodgers will have baseball’s best record.  However, they won’t be baseball’s best team.  They’re fortunate enough to play in the humorously bad NL West, in which the 2^nd place team is sitting at .500.  Given they’ll play the Giants, D’backs, Padres, and Rockies 18 times a year each, they have a scheduling advantage that no other team has.  They’ll inflate their record by feasting on the NL’s soft underbelly and run away from the rest of the pack.  But again, I stress that they aren’t baseball’s best team.  They’re an elite team, especially once Manny returns, but when Tampa, Boston, Philly, and both New York Teams are firing at full strength, I’m not really sure that L.A. can keep pace.  That pitching is way too thin and the lineup isn’t as good as it’s been.  Again they’re a solid playoff team, but when it’s all said and done, I don’t think they’ll be as good as their record indicates.

Atlanta will need a bigger bat than Nate Mclouth to reach October.  It was a good trade for them, but that team has an anemic offense.  They may be a respectable 9^th in the NL in runs scored, but every team they’re fighting with for a playoff spot has a more prolific offense.  Their pitching might be better, but do you really think they can stack up with Philadelphia or New York if they score 150 fewer runs?  If they want somebody who can carry them to the postseason, they needed to make a trade for Matt Holliday, not Nate.  He’s certainly an offensive upgrade over Jordan Schaeffer, but he’ll give back any runs he creates because he’s an awful defender.  “BuTt hE 1 a gOld GlOvE!!!11one” Yes, and so did Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter.  I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s no correlation between actual defensive abilities and gold gloves.  Check out Thefieldingbible.com to see who’s good defensively.  Please, never use anything like fielding percentage or gold gloves or web gems when evaluating a defender.  Please.  Back to Atlanta, they certainly COULD win the East, but I don’t see it happening barring a slew of injuries to their northern rivals or a trade from an impact bat.  They’re just not there yet.

Detroit might be proving it a year late, but the Tigers are a legitimate World Series contender.  After their offseason trade before 2008 for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the prominent opinion was that Detroit was the best team in the AL.  Unfortunately, two things happened: Their pitching fell apart and their poor defense became apparent.  After a year of struggling Detroit has finally turned it around.  Here’s how they did it:

Defense.  The Tiggers [no sic] made a bevy of cheap offseason moves to renovate their defense, and therefore bolster their pitching.  By cutting Gary Sheffield they could move slow-footed Carlos Guillen to move to DH, where his D wasn’t a liability.  That allowed them to slot able defender Josh Anderson in left field.  They let no-range shortstop Edgar Renteria walk and replaced him with defensive wizard Adam Everett (who’s actually been hitting just as well).  They moved Miguel Cabrera from 3^rd to 1^st, where his lack of range and throwing arm won’t hurt the team as badly.  Brandon Inge, who is a terrific defender, was moved from catcher to third base (his natural position), so now the Tigers can actually turn balls hit to the hot corner into outs.  It may be easy to overlook the effect of team defense, but a solid defense can do wonders for a pitching staff.  The 2008 Rays are a prime example.

Pitching.  This staff was hugely disappointing in 2008, and was the main reason this team didn’t even sniff October.  They have pulled a full 180 in the last 8 months.  For one thing, the bullpen has just been lights out.  No way around that.  Justin Verlander is finally evolving into the dominant starter everyone believed he would become, and his overall 2009 stats don’t show just how tremendous he’s been over the past month.  The trade for Edwin Jackson now looks like the steal of the winter, and thus far Detroit has had dual aces.  Rick Porcello has been terrific thus far, as the former 1^st-round pick has an ERA of 3.70 through his first 10 big league starts.  Jeremy Bonderman has been dominating in the minors during is rehab assignments, and looks ready to rejoin the Tigers any day now.  Oh, and don’t look now, but the D-Train posted back to back quality starts (before getting shelled by Baltimore).  Progress, my friends, progress.  

Detroit’s front office has to be pleased with themselves.  When this team was engineered, it was succeed because of its bats.  When that failed, the team was completely rearranged and rebuilt upon solid pitching and defense. 

Like I said in the intro, enough time has finally passed for us to get an idea of how the final 2/3 of the season will shake out.  We now are pretty sure which teams are poised to make an October run and which teams won’t fulfill their offseason expectations.  The beauty of sports, however, is that in the end, we really have no idea.  I can promise you that there are still surprises left this season.  I’m almost positive that at least one team that looks like an odds-on postseason favorite will come up short, and one team that currently looks dead in the water will sneak in.  It always happens that way, doesn’t it?

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: The First Quarter Outlook

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

Well, since we’re roughly at the quarter mark of the 2009 baseball season, I decided to do some sort of a recap, preferably one that is poorly structured and disorganized. But first, I’d be remiss if I didn’t comment on the whole Manny being chemically-enhanced Manny thing. I don’t need to go through the whole integrity of the game spiel because you’ve heard that hundreds of times after the various incidents involving McGwire and Clemens and Bonds and Rodriguez and– holy crap, this game has no integrity! Seriously, how can that many good players get busted and– Sorry, I suppose that was unavoidable. Anyways, Manny claims he’s innocent and that he was prescribed HCG (a women’s fertility drug) by his doctor to boost his testosterone levels “for personal reasons.” So if he’s right, he’s impotent. Would that really make you feel any better about him?

Anyways, the general rule of thumb is to give a team until Memorial Day to pass any judgments on them. You guys will have to forgive me for posting this 4 days early. So through the first month and a half, this is what I’ve learned:

The Blue Jays are for real (maybe). Honestly I can’t make up my mind. I could write two separate posts: one arguing they’re a fluke and one arguing that they’ll win the AL East. In fact, I think I will. Maybe it’ll help me make up a mind.

For real:
They have the best record in the AL, and have scored the most runs while allowing the fewest. They’re still playing well (winning 7 of their last 10), so it’s not as if they started hot and just cooled off. They were great at the end of last year too, and had the best record in the game over the final two months. Their rotation is anchored by Roy Halladay, and their vets are having bounce-back years while some younger guys are beginning to break out. They have a filthy bullpen and fantastic defense, which is what most legitimate World Series threats are built upon. And it’s late May and they’re still in the lead.

Frauds:
I look at their roster and see a ton of guys overachieving. Rod Barajas’s OPS+ (On-base plus slugging %, where 100 is average) is 114. His career average is 79, and he’s 33, so it shouldn’t be getting better. Aaron Hill is OPSing .947, and I know he just turned the magical 27, but in his only other non-injury plagued seasons he’s OPSed in the .700s. He’s not David Wright. Marco Scutaro has always been an awful hitter but now he’s suddenly a very good one? At age 33? And you’re going to tell me that 29-year-old stopgap starter Scott Richmond is suddenly on par with Josh Beckett? Let’s face it, this roster is due for a lot of regression. Oh, and they’ve only played 8 games against the AL East, and only 5 against the Yankees or Sawx, in which they’re 1-4.

The verdict: I hate to say it, but I can’t shake the feeling the birds are for real. It’s just my gut. I know it goes against the very statistical analysis that I use every week on this column, but every day they seem more and more legitimate. Teams that overachieve generally regress after a month or so, but the Jays are still going strong. Every now and then a mediocre team composed of middling players will explode into the playoffs, led by a bevy of career years that come out of nowhere. Take my beloved 1993 Phillies, for example. That team had no business making the postseason, between dozens of question marks and zero expectations. The Jays seem like that team. Also, their success thus far has been without their two best hitters, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. If those two can start hitting the Jays may be able to easily overcome any regression they’ll face.

Big Papi is pretty much done.

Although he finally snapped his 27,391 at-bat homerless drought, David Ortiz is still rapidly declining. Between his bum wrist and a skill set that doesn’t age well (look up Mo Vaughn) I really don’t have any confidence that he can return to being a threat in the middle of any lineup, let alone the force he was even just 2 years ago. Look at his numbers over the past 4 years:

2006: .287 BA, .413 OBP, .636(!) SLG, 1 Home Run every 10.33 At Bats
2007: .322, .445, .621, 1HR/ 15.69 AB
2008: .264, .369, .505, 1HR/ 19.8 AB
2009: .203, .317, .293, 1HR/138 AB

If that doesn’t spell decline, I don’t know what does. Well, except D-E-C-L-I-N-E.

Zack Greinke has finally fulfilled his potential and joined the ranks of the elite pitchers of the game. I know he’s only made 8 starts, but his numbers are ridiculous. 7-1, .60 ERA(!), .83 WHIP, .189 AVG against, 65 K in 60 IP. His peripherals are just as good. Look, we all know he isn’t THIS good. No one is. He won’t be able to sustain this level of success all season long. But there are maybe 5 pitchers in the game that can carry that level of dominance over 8 starts, and Greinke’s proven he ranks up there right alongside the Santanas, Halladays, and Harens of the sport.

The defending champs are in some serious trouble. Yes, I’m a little worried about my Phillies. If they can’t rectify their starting pitching, there’s almost no way they can hope to defend their crown. They can take solace in the fact that Hamels wasn’t near 100% to begin the year but has straightened things out since. Brett Myers appears to be settling down, and the serviceable J.A. Happ replaces the horrendous Chan Ho Park. But unless Joe Blanton or Jamie Moyer can turn this around (or the Phils can manage to replace them) this staff is rather shallow. A shallow pitching staff won’t win you many playoff series, either.

The Diamondbacks are never going to be a force in the NL. Not this D’Backs club, as it’s currently constructed. For the past few years analysts and executives have been saying that Arizona is a team to watch out for. Anchored by a dominant 1-2 atop their rotation and a lineup filled with prospects with bright futures, many thought that this could be the year ‘zona finally takes the next step. Sadly, they haven’t. It’s been so bad they fired Manager Doug Melvin. It’s tough for a small-market team based on prospects and potential to take the next step when the prospects don’t pan out. Mark Reynolds has tons of power but appears destined to remain a Ryan Howard lite. Chris Young seems unable to ride his dynamic power and speed combo to anything beyond the role of a fourth outfielder. Conor Jackson can hit for average (although apparently not in 2009) but it doesn’t look like he’ll ever develop much power. Chad Tracy is declining at age 30 and resigning Eric Byrnes was an awful decision. I’ll admit, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton still have tons of potential, and Upton’s already showing us glimpses of his future right now. But with Drew and ace Brandon Webb on the shelf, a bad bullpen, a shallow rotation, and a lineup that lacks and teeth, it’s hard to get excited about this team now or for next year.

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: The flukey-est stats that clearly won’t continue

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII’m baaaaaaaaaaaack! Yup, after a three-week laziness-driven hiatus, I’m back to the blogging scene to provide my jaded and callous views on the happenings in Major League Baseball.

We’ve already put three weeks in the books, and tons of storylines have emerged. And, as always, “experts” (Howard Bryant) have come forth with ridiculous assertions and predictions and “analysis,” based merely on 1/8.5 (or 2/17!) of the schedule. What these ex-perts (I really don’t know what that means, but I think some of my slower readers may mistake it for wit) fail to realize is that we still have 7.5/8.5 (or 15/17!) of the season left to play. This time last year, Baltimore led the AL East and Arizona looked like the best team since I drafted Pablo Sanchez, Derek Jeter, Pete Wheeler, Sammy Sosa, and Randy Johnson that one time in Backyard Baseball 2003. Neither Baltimore nor Arizona made the playoffs, although my team, the Pink Wombats, did win 43-1.

In other words, you simply can’t read too much into the statistics compiled thus far. It’s one of the most important ideas in the world of statistics. You can’t simply assume that 50% of Asians have the Avian flu because 1 of the 2 you met were sick. Yet baseball analysts all over (read: Steve Phillips) publish articles raving that Crash Davis has “refined his approach” or “re-discovered his swing” and “is making an early case for MVP” because he’s hitting .372 through 51 at-bats, 26 of which came against Mark Hendrickson. Such analysts also avoid interviews with Ichiro Suzuki because there’s a pretty good chance he has the bird flu.

So what my plan is for today (well tonight, it’s like 2:45 AM as I write this) is to list the 10 flukey-est stats that clearly won’t continue, despite Rob Neyer’s arguments otherwise. And, Break!

7.) Jair Jurrjens will make a push for the Cy Young Award. Now, if he makes 25 more starts and his ERA remains below 2, I’d probably vote for him. But he won’t. Look he’s a solid young pitcher, but you’re telling me that he’s better than Johan or Lincecum or Haren? If his ERA stays below 3.5 I’ll consider it a very successful year for him. He’s a middle of the rotation guy who’s numbers are a lot better than they will be come July.

6.) The Toronto Blue Jays will win 106 games. Well, at least that’s what they’re on pace for. Look, I like the Blue Jays. I pull for them every year. They usually have the talent to compete in any other division but don’t have the money to run with Boston or New York, and they don’t have the decade’s-worth of first overall picks to run with the Rays. They’re the perennial underdog that’s so lovable. But they’re not a 100+ win team. They’re not even a 90 win team, and they’re not the best team in the AL East. I know Tampa looks lost and New York’s starters are getting shelled every day and Big Papi can’t hit anymore, but Toronto can’t keep up this pace. Their 2nd best starter is Scott Richmond and Marco Scutaro is batting leadoff. Just make sure you have your bomb shelter stocked with food because the Jays are coming crashing back to Earth. (Gasp!)

5.) Carlos Pena will challenge Barry Bonds single-season home run record. He has 11 thus far through 27 games, which puts him on pace for 66. One hot streak and he could be all over Bonds’ 73. Man, this is better than the summer of ’98. And he doesn’t do steroids! Now get that man some steroids so a clean player can hold the home run title.

4.) Zach Duke’s 2.21 ERA. On the bright side, at least the Pirate’s got 5 good starts out of him. On the not bright (?) side, his statistics indicate that’s he’s overachieving. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play- see end of article for an explanation if you’re not a sabermetrician, you nerd) is far below league average, and since a pitcher has little control over where a ball goes once it’s hit, it’s apparent he’s been lucky. His home run per fly ball rate is way way way below league average (Microsoft Word is screaming at me to delete the repeated words), and there’s no way that continues. Plus he’s striking out like one batter every three games. At some point that’ll even out and his ERA will swell. I know Duke and the entire Pirates rotation has been a nice story, but it really won’t continue. They’re just not that good.

3.) Nick Swisher probably isn’t as good as Albert Pooholes. And yet his OBP and slugging percentages are crazy close. Like, seriously it’s crazy. Swisher isn’t nearly as good as Pooholes. One is an average first baseman, and the other is one of the absolute best players of all time. But if somebody told you that and gave you their 2009 statistics without their names attached, you could only guess which one was the 1st-ballot Hall of Famer. And then you’d say Swisher and everyone would laugh at you, fool.

2.) Russell Branyan will win the AL MVP. Book it. He’s hitting .321, slugging .667, with 7 home runs in 78 at-bats. The lifetime bench player suddenly found himself thrust into the starting lineup for Seattle, and he’s certainly made the most of it. Clearly this isn’t random sampling variability and his numbers obviously will never regress. After all, Buster Olney of ESPN says that the reason the man was struggling was his lack of at-bats. Look Buster, I (don’t) respect your opinion, but there’s a reason he wasn’t getting at bats. He wasn’t good! He did one thing well: bash homers. He was Mark McGwire light. So…he doesn’t do roids. He’ll hit .220 with 30 Home runs and finish 59th in MVP voting…but 4th in Cy Young voting for all the strikeouts he provided Zach Greinke.

And our winner for the most flukey player of the 2009 season is…
1.) Alberto Collapso! (who?) Again, that’s Alberto Collapso. Ring a bell? Didn’t think so. AC is hitting .378 through 24 games. Here’s the secret, Steve Phillips: He’s riding a crazy wave of luck. His BABIP is an unsustainable .427. In other words, everything he hits right now is falling in the gaps. Eventually that will regress to normal levels and his average will Collapso! Tell me you saw that coming! I dare you! Congrats to the Collpaso family, they should be proud of their deceptively average kin.

Well I originally intended for this to be a Top-10 list, but I got sick off looking at numbers so I called it a post at 7. So…yeah. At least it’s free so you can’t say you feel gypped. I’ll be back next week, but I don’t know (IDK, if you will) what I’ll be doing.
Check it out for a surprise!

And now, our stat of the week. BABIP. Batting average on balls in play. In other words, this stat is a compilation of the percentage of balls that a batter hits into play that drop for a base hit. If he has one at bat and lines one straight at the 3rd basemen for an out, his BABIP would be zero. If he strikes out during that one at-bat his BABIP is undefined (or something) because he didn’t put the ball into play, but his overall batting average would be zero. Sucker. This is a great stat to use to tell if a batter has been lucky or unlucky. Every batter’s career BABIP will vary based on their skills. Manny Ramirez’s career BABIP is .345, because he’s really good. Mario Mendoza’s career BABIP was .254, something you’d expect from the man who established the Mendoza line. When a batter’s BABIP is far above or below their career norms you can assume they’ve had a great degree of luck, good or bad. The thing with baseball is that a ton of luck is involved. Player A can be locked in, smashing line drives left and right. But if they’re all right at fielders they’ll have nothing to show for it. Player B can be Mario Mendoza, but if all of his pop flies and weak grounders manage to find a hole he’ll look like Tony Gwynn.

By the same token, pitchers are greatly affected by BABIP as well. Unlike batters, pitchers surprisingly have very little control of their BABIP. Pitchers can control 4 things: strikeouts, home runs, walks, and batters hit. Beyond that there is a great deal of luck. The average BABIP for all pitchers is roughly .300, and any deviation from that generally signifies some degree of luck. Ian Snell has a lower ERA than Johan Santana? Check their BABIPs. Now some pitchers, such as Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb, can induce a lot of weak batted balls via their sinkers, which deflates their BABIPs. But beyond that, a pitcher’s BABIP is largely luck. As a result, fluke starts like that of Zach Duke occur every year.

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu

MLB: NL Predictions

By Andy Harris, WSOE Sports

Hey guys! I’m back! I probably should name this column, but for now we’ll call it “Baseball Talk with John Kruk,” because his insight is invaluable. Last week I looked at the AL and made my predictions. This week I’ll move over to the Senior Circuit…That’s the NL.

Let’s start out with the NL West, perhaps the worst overall division in baseball.

-5th Place, and still defending losers, San Diego Padres! It’s crazy to think that this time a year ago, the Fathers were considered a very strong candidate for a playoff spot. I don’t know how I or anyone else managed to overlook their glaring holes (read: 4/5 of their 25-man roster). About the only reason to keep tabs on the Pads this year is to see where Jake Peavy gets traded in July.

-4th Place, Colorado Rockies. Sticking with the theme established by the Padres, it’s crazy to think that one year ago, the Rockies were defending NL Champions. Rocktober, everyone! It turns out that this was just an average team that got hot. Who knew? The Rockies still can’t pitch and they traded away their best player Matt Holliday for garbage. They won’t even sniff ROctober this year.

-3rd Place, Arizona Diamondbacks. With Arizona, it’s all about patience. They have one of the youngest rosters in the game, and it seems like we’ve been waiting for a decade for their young stars to emerge. (If you’re in a Fantasy baseball keeper league, pick up Justin Upton and latch on. Dude’s gonna be insane in 3 years). If Stephen Drew, Upton, and Conor Jackson fulfill their potential this year, the snakes will have a lineup to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, I just don’t quite think that this is the year…again. They lost the Big Unit and replaced him with Jon Garland. The offense doesn’t make enough contact or get on base enough to really be the force it may become a few years from now. They’ll contend but come up short.

-2nd Place, San Francisco Giants. What do you know, a team that will rarely score more than 3 runs a game will hover around .500. Such is that state of the NL West. They actually have a really good starting rotation, probably the best in the division. Tim Lincecum is downright nasty, they added still ticking (how?) Randy Johnson, and I really think Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez take the next step. If they could hit at all I’d be far more optimistic about this team.

-1st Place, and still champion, Los Angeles Dodgers of Anaheim. Sorry about that, I got my L.A. teams confused again. The rotation takes a step back by losing Derek Lowe, but the lineup takes a huge step forward with full years from Manny and Rafael Furcal. For the first time in seemingly ever, L.A. will boast a very good offense. With their slightly above average pitching that will be more than enough to run away in the awful West.

Now on to the NL Central, probably the only division in the game with a clear-cut preseason favorite.

6th Place, Pittsburgh Pirates. The Buccaneers could potentially boast a good lineup…If Nate Mclouth and Ryan Doumit repeat, if Freddy Sanchez bounces back, if Andy Laroche and Andrew McCutchen come close to their ceiling, and if Adam Laroche figures out that hitting in April is no different than hitting in September. But…that won’t happen, and they’ll be a laughing stock for a 17th straight year. Keep your eyes on Pedro Alvarez, because he’ll be anchoring the Pirates lineup in 2 years. Maybe they’ll be good then.

5th Place, Houston Astros. It has to be so depressing to be an Astros fan. Every year they put just enough front-line talent on the field to get one’s hopes up, but inevitably fail because they have no supporting cast. They have a strong but aging core with not enough depth to make any headway. With a limited payroll, Ed Wade as a GM, and no talent whatsoever waiting in the minors, you’re looking at the worst franchise in the sport.

4th Place, Saint Louis Cardinals. Envision this team without Albert Pujols. Do you see a playoff contender now? Neither do I. This is a double-A team without Pooh. If Chris Carpenter can bounce back and give them 150 innings, they’ll have a shot, but I’m not sure that I see enough on that roster to be optimistic.

3rd place, Milwaukee Brewers. Despite their offensive weapons, the Brew Crew were only 7th in the NL in runs scored. The girl that took them to the dance was their starting pitching, but now the Brewers need to find a new girl because she had shoulder surgery and is dating a handsome young New York gent. (CC Sabathia signed with New York and Ben Sheets had should surge- you know what? Forget it.) Seriously, this team barely made the playoffs last year WITH CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, and now they lose them both. They’ll be fun to watch with all that power, but they’re no more than a Wild Card dark horse.

2nd Place, Cincinnati Reds. I swear I’ve heard more comparisons between the Reds and 2008 Rays than legitimate baseball analysis this offseason. Sure, I’ll give you that both teams are anchored by young and talented pitching staffs and a few young stars on offense, but I think the John Kruks of the world are forgetting something: The Rays were way better. They pitched better. They hit better. Most of all, they defended better. The Reds have an above .500 club, and a solid core to build around. If they act wisely they can reach the playoffs sometime in the next 3 years, but not in 2009.

1st Place, and still defending Champions, Chicago Cubs! This team should coast through the Central, but I’m not sure that this team is as good as everyone thinks. That rotation is a lot shakier than it appears. Ace(?) Ryan Dempster had a career year, never even touching those numbers whilst in the pen, and my money says he doesn’t repeat. Carlos Zambrano is in free fall. Seriously, look at his stats over the last 4 years. He’s gone from an Ace to a number three with shoulder issues. That September no-hitter against Houston masked just how ineffective he was last year. Rich Harden can be amazing, but he can also spend 5 months on the DL. Ted Lilly’s the only sure thing and he’s only good for a 4.00 ERA. Again, they’ll make the playoffs easy because no one else in the central is playoff-caliber, but I think the North Siders’ title drought reaches 101 years. Unless they trade for Jake Peavy mid season…

And now on to the best division in the NL, the East. In it holds the defending champs, a perennial favorite, a young and potent force, and a fallen dynasty looking for reprisal.

5th Place, Montreal Expos Washington Nationals. I said earlier it’s got to be depressing to by a Houston fan, because they’re mediocre now and will be far worse in the foreseeable future. It must be twice as bad to be a Nationals fan. They’re awful now AND for the foreseeable future. Their GM just got fired. Their top prospect turned out to be 18 years older than originally thought. Their Opening Day starter is John Lannan. I’ll stop now, because I don’t want any of my dear readers to have to get a prescription for Prozac.

4th Place, Miami Florida Marlins. I love this team’s upside. What I don’t like is their downside. They could and probably will have the best starting pitching in the division, and easily the most underrated. Fantasy owners: get Josh Johnson on your roster now. The defense still sucks and the offense got slightly worse (you can’t call replacing Mike Jacobs with Emilio Bonifacio a good move, defense or not), but with the starting pitching that they didn’t have last year they should finish above .500, but no better than 4th in this rugged division.

3rd Place, Atlanta Braves. They were better last year than they showed, and they got better this year then they were last year. They lost a ridiculous number of one run games, (30!) in which they’ll improve. Their starting pitching, obliterated by injuries and ineffectiveness last year, has been revamped. It lacks an ace, but it’s includes 5 good pitchers that will win more than they lose. On top of that, Tim Hudson should be back my August and prospect Tommy Hanson is ready to come up and dominate. Kenshin Kawakami, straight out of Dragon Ball Z, is the wild card, but here’s my prediction for him: In his first 5-6 starts, he’s lights out. Once teams start seeing him for the 2nd time, he gets knocked around. Then he adjusts and turns into an effective but now dominant starter. This rotation has the potential to be elite in the NL. The offense is still lacking, especially minus Mark Teixeira, but I’m seriously predicting a rebound from Jeff Francoeur. Stupid, I know. With they’re pitching they’ll score enough to win 89 games, and barely miss out on the Wild Card.

2nd Place, New York Mets. With the additions of K-rod and JJ Putz, the Mets have once again springboarded the Phillies and are now the best team in the NL East. The problem? That’s just the consensus, not the facts. The Mets are good but not great. Rather than truly revamping their Achilles heel, they put a band-aid on it. Do K-rod and Putz improve the pen? Yes. But will they pitch the 6th and 7th on days when John Maine or Ollie or Pelfrey or Livan get roughed up early? No. Beyond that, their starting pitching is far weaker than it appears. Maine is a huge question mark, as he hopes to return from shoulder surgery. Oliver Perez can strike out the side or give up 10 runs, and will fluctuate from start to start all season long. Mike Pelfrey, who many tab as a breakout star this year, will regress. I don’t have time to break it down, but his peripherals and workload point toward some regression. Speaking of such, does anyone really think Carlos Delgado has a 38 home run season left? The Mets had better hope so. In short, the offense won’t be as good, the starting pitching won’t be as good, and the bullpen won’t be as good as everyone thinks. But that’s a New York team for you.

1st Place, Philadelphia Phillies. This team hinges on Cole Hamels’ elbow. If it’s healthy and he makes even just 25 starts, they win the division. If not, it won’t be so easy. What I like about this team is that unlike most World Series winners, they really didn’t have many career years on their roster. Sure, Jamie Moyer and Chad Durbin won’t be as good and Lidge will blow a save, but the rest of their roster didn’t perform up to expectations. Chase Utley was on MVP pace until he injured his hip in June, which sapped his power and average. Ryan Howard lost his swing for 3 months. Jimmy Rollins battled an ankle injury for 4 months and wasn’t his typical sparkplug self. Brett Myers had his worst season ever. They had 50 starts from Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton, both who had ERAs over 5, and replaced them with Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ. I like the addition of Ibanez over Burrell, assuming Charlie Manuel bats lefty-killer Jayson Werth 5th and Raul Ibanez 6th. He brings consistency to a hit-or-miss lineup. Even if Moyer and Durbin regress, this team should be even better in 2009 than in 2008.

Stat of the Day: This is a new segment, but since the whole damn column is two weeks old, everything’s new. I may use some advanced statistics while discussing players, I wanted to keep you guys educated on these stats, and how to use them. I’ll start off with the easy ones. For today, let’s talk OBP, or On-Base Percentage. The skill of getting on base is far more important in baseball than it is given credit for. Why? Because most people assume that the goal of a plate appearance is to get a hit. In reality, the goal is to not make an out, or in other words get on base. A player who hits .220 but gets on base at a .380 will score more run than a player who his .300 with a .310 OBP (external variables aside). It is my firm belief that OBP should sit alongside Avg.-HR-RBI on player graphics for television broadcasts. Getting on base is a greatly underappreciated skill, one far more important than batting average.

Contact Information:
Andy Harris
WSOE Sports
aharris20@elon.edu